18.13 This summary of everything we know so far about the weather system at
the time the flight disappeared, produced by Mashable, is well worth a read.
Andrew Freedman writes:
Here's what we know
so far:
• Weather — from fog to thunderstorms — is a
contributing factor in the majority of aviation accidents, including the
disappearance of an Air France Airbus A330 off the coast of Brazil in 2009.
• A large area of disturbed weather, including areas of
intense thunderstorms with cloud tops that reached or exceeded the AirAsia
flight's cruising altitude, were likely in the vicinity of the plane when it
disappeared. Unusually heavy rainfall has caused widespread flooding in parts
of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia in the past week.
• The flight's pilot requested a turn to avoid bad
weather ahead of the plane, which is a standard procedure for when flights
encounter poor weather and turbulence.
17.24 Our former transport correspondent, David
Millward, has also been in touch with Oliver McGee, deputy assistant
transportation secretary in Bill Clinton’s administration and currently a
professor at Howard University in Washington DC.
Prof McGee says:
There were
supposedly highly turbulent black storm cells as part of the above weather map.
Such black cells can reach very high altitudes in the range of airliner cruise,
and could feature heavy winds and lightning with large hail stones that could
possibility be injected into the aircraft engines like bullets, causing foreign
object damage and high cycle fatigue failure of engine parts during the tragic
moments of flight QZ8501.
Analogous to what happened five-years ago with Air France
flight AF447 back in 2009, which tumbled into similar ice crystal-like
inter-tropical convergence storms, while cruising over the Atlantic Ocean off
the coast of Brazil, at higher altitudes there is a much higher probability of
engine stall, primarily due to less oxygen in the air alongside varying
temperature distribution affecting engine power during highly turbulent
tropical storms.
Moreover, such tropical storm conditions shown in the
weather map above may have also supposedly caused distortion of air flow inside
the engine intake that may have in all probability induced engine stall, thus allegedly
causing flight QZ8501's Airbus A320 airliner to literally fall out of the sky
into the Java Sea off the coast of Indonesia.
17.00 This is the first image we've seen of Captain
Irianto, pilot of the airline's missing flight QZ8501.
The picture was posted on social media by his daughter
Angela Ranastianis.
His nephew praised Capt Irianto as "a very caring
person" (see 14.14).
5:31am Sunday (22.31 GMT Saturday) - Air Asia Flight 8501
took off from Surabaya, bound for Singapore.
6:13am (23.13 GMT) - last communication between the pilot
and air traffic control, as pilot asked to turn left and climb to 34,000 feet
to “avoid clouds”
6:16am (23.16 GMT) - last seen on radar
6.17am (23.17 GMT) - no longer on radar
16.04 In a statement, AirAsia said it had set up
emergency briefing rooms for family members of the missing passengers at both
airports.
Sunu Widyatmoko, chief executive of AirAsia Indonesia, said:
We are deeply shocked
and saddened by this incident.
We are cooperating with the relevant authorities to the
fullest extent to determine the cause of this incident. In the meantime, our
main priority is keeping the families of our passengers and colleagues informed
on the latest developments.
We will do everything possible to support them as the
investigation continues and have already mobilized a support team to help take
care of their immediate needs, including accommodation and travel
arrangements."
15.41 From Jakarta, Marie Dhumieres brings
the following update:
Indonesia has accepted Singapore's offer to launch four navy
ships to join the search, says Second Defence Minister Chan Chun Sing, as
reported by Channel News Asia.
Our prayers and
thoughts are with the passengers, crew, and their families. Hope the missing
plane will be located soon," he wrote in a Facebook post.
15.33 The AirAsia aircraft that went missing on Sunday
on its way to Singapore from Surabaya in Indonesia was delivered to its
operator in 2008 and had recorded 23,000 flight hours on 13,600 flights,
manufacturer Airbus said in a statement.
AirAsia said the aircraft had undergone its last scheduled
maintenance on November 16.
More than 6,000 A320-200s are in service.
They are designed to be used intensively on short routes and
are favoured, along with the competing Boeing 737, by the low-cost airlines
that run such routes.
15.15 Reuters: U.S. NTSB SPOKESMAN SAYS AGENCY IS MONITORING
SEARCH FOR MISSING AIRASIA PLANE AND IT STANDS "READY TO ASSIST THE
INDONESIANS IF NEEDED"
15.04 Chief Executive of AirAsia Tony Fernandes told a
press conference at Juanda International Airport, Surabaya that the missing
plane was in a "good condition" and had "never had any
problems", and had passed its last scheduled maintenance in mid-November.14.32 We're beginning to get information about the
passengers on board.
The three South Koreans were missionaries, the Wall St Journal reports.
A church in Yeosu, a fishing village 455 kilometers south of
Seoul, said the three Koreans were Park Seong-beom, 37 years old, his wife Lee
Kyung-hwa, 36, and their 12-month daughter Park Yuna.
The couple had been sent to Indonesia as Christian
missionaries and were travelling to Singapore to renew their visas, according
to Choi Hong-koo, an official at the Yeosu First Presbyterian Church.
Mr Choi said:
I still can’t believe
the family is missing.
14.14 The captain of the plane is known as Iriyanto,
and the co-pilot was a Frenchman named Remi Emmanual Plesel.
Captain Iriyanto, the pilot of missing AirAsia flight
QZ8501, was a very caring man who never failed to help those in need,
his nephew said.
The nephew, Doni told Indonesian news portal Detik.com today
that Iriyanto cared very much about people who needed help.
He is always helping
people because he is a very caring person. If there is a sick relative who
needed help and even money, my uncle would be there.
"If there are money problems in the family, he would
surely help," said Doni from Yogyakarta who lives in Surabaya.
Doni told Detik.com that Iriyanto is married with two
school-going children. His wife does not have a job.
According to a media release by AirAsia, Iriyanto had
clocked 6,100 hours of flying time.
Flying with him was first officer Remi Emmanual Plesel, who
had logged 2,275 hours of flying time. Plesel is a French national.
13.58 So how safe is air travel in Indonesia?
Associated Press has compiled this timeline.
The sprawling
archipelago nation of 250 million people is one of Asia's most rapidly
expanding airline markets, but is struggling to provide enough qualified
pilots, mechanics, air traffic controllers and updated airport technology to
ensure safety. Here's a look at some of the incidents over the past 20 years.
—— April 2013: A brand new Boeing 737-800 operated by
Indonesian budget carrier Lion Air crashes off the Indonesian resort island of
Bali, slamming into the ocean short of the runway while attempting to land in
the rain. All 108 people on board survived, and there were no serious injuries.
It was Lion Air's seventh accident since 2002.
—— May 2012: A Russian-made Sukhoi Superjet-100 slams into a
volcano during a demonstration flight in Indonesia, killing all 45 people on
board. Information recovered from the plane's cockpit-voice and flight data
recorders indicated the pilot in command was chatting with a potential buyer in
the cockpit just before the plane slammed into dormant Mount Salak in West Java
province.
—— January 2007: A Boeing 737 operated by Indonesia's Adam
Air vanishes on New Year's Day on a domestic flight from Surabaya to Manado
with 102 people aboard. Parts of the tail and other debris are found several
days later, but it would take nearly nine months for the flight-data and
cockpit recorders to be recovered. The fuselage is still on the ocean floor.
—— September 2005: A flight from Indonesia's now-defunct
Mandala Airlines is headed from Medan in north Sumatra to Bali when the plane
crashes into a heavily populated residential area seconds after taking off,
killing 149 people. The fatalities included 100 people aboard the plane and 49
on the ground. Seventeen people on the plane survived.
—— December 1997: All 104 people onboard are killed when a
plane operated by Singapore-based SilkAir crashes into the Musi River in
southern Sumatra en route from Jakarta to Singapore. U.S. investigators said
that the pilot probably crashed on purpose, but an Indonesian investigation was
inconclusive.
—— September 1997: An Airbus A300 operated by national
carrier Garuda Indonesia crashes while approaching Medan Airport, killing all
234 people aboard. The plane, which had taken off from Jakarta, crashed into a
mountainous, wooded area in low visibility.
—— January 1995: A flight operated by Indonesia-based
Merpati Nusantara Airlines disappears over open water while flying between
islands in the archipelago nation. The de Havilland Twin Otter 300 with 14
passengers and crew was never found.
13.34 From Indonesia, Marie Dhumieres says
that 16 next-of-kin have taken up the offer to fly to Surabaya tonight, a
Changi Airport Group spokesperson says.13.19 A local news channel, Channel News Asia, claims
that they have identified the Briton on board as Choi Chi Man -
although The Telegraph has not been able to confirm this.
The Briton on board flight AirAsia flight QZ8501 is believed
to be Mr Choi Chi Man, who is based in Indonesia, where he is the managing
director at an energy company.
He was accompanied by his two-year-old daughter, Zoe, who is
believed to have been the sole Singaporean on the flight.
According to a copy of the passenger manifest released to
Indonesian media, Mr Choi and Zoe bought their tickets on Friday (Dec 26).
According to the manifest, they were seated in the first row, in Seats 1B and
1C.
According to his LinkedIn account, Mr Choi was born at Hull
in Yorkshire, England, and graduated from the University of Essex in 1988.
He was Unit Managing Director for Thermal Services at energy
firm Alstom Power, a position he held since July this year. Prior to that, he
was based in Singapore, where he was a senior executive at Alstom Grid,
according to his LinkedIn profile.
Channel NewsAsia understands that Mr Choi’s wife had
travelled back to Singapore from Surabaya earlier with Zoe’s older brother.
13.15 More from Marie Dhumieres in Indonesia.
Indonesian Vice President Jusuf Kalla has just spoken at a
press conference in Jakarta.
For more than 10
hours of search now, there’s a high possibility that an accident has happened
[to the plane].
We want to express our deepest condolences and apologies to
the families of the passengers.
The search is set to resume at 6am local time.
13.07 Our correspondent Rosa Silverman has
been looking into the story of the AirAsia owner, Tony Fernandes.
His motto is “dream
the impossible” and some might have thought Tony Fernandes was doing just that
when, as a child, he dreamed of establishing Asia’s first low-cost airline.
But as an adult, the Malaysian-born entrepreneur put into
practice another of his personal maxims – “never take no for an answer” – and
set about making that dream a reality.
His career in business did not begin in the airline
industry, however.
After finishing his schooling at Epsom College, a boarding
school in Surrey, he studied at the London School of Economics and qualified as
a chartered accountant.12.48 So what has happened to the plane? Did it crash
in weather? Was it pilot error?
David Learmount, the operations and safety editor of
Flightglobal, makes the following analysis:
I believe this is
likely to turn out to be related to what happened to the Swiftair Boeing MD-80
over Mali on 24 July this year.
The leased Spanish aircraft was carrying out a schedule for
Air Algerie. They also advised ATC that they were diverting around bad weather,
then nothing more was heard of them, and the wreckage was found in the desert
some two days later.
You can read more about that crash here:
12.45 Another AirAsia flight, travelling internally in Malaysia from
Penang to Pulau Langkawi, had to turn back due to "technical issues"
some 10 minutes after taking off on Sunday afternoon.
Flight AK6242, with more than 150 people onboard, had
departed at 4.30pm from the Penang International Airport on Sunday.
Sources said the flight eventually took off again at 6.15pm
and reached its destination at 6.47pm.
12.37 More from Marie Dhumieres, our correspondent
in Indonesia.
Jakarta Post is
reporting that Indonesian Vice President Jusuf Kalla is leading the search and
rescue operation. Kalla arrived on Sunday evening at the headquarters of the
National Search and Rescue Agency in Jakarta.
"We're mobilizing all personnel to find the plane. Our
focus is to find it as soon as possible," he said.12.21 We are working to bring you more details on the
Briton who was on board.
We know that he was a "British overseas passport holder" - which
could mean he was based in Hong Kong, or a British territory.
12.12 So how much of a factor was the weather in the
disappearance of this plane?
CNN's aviation expert Richard Quest said:
Bad weather per se
does not bring down aircraft.
Merely because a plane is going through bad weather
shouldn't be an issue. But how the pilot may respond to bad weather could be an
issue in this case.
With around 8,000 flying hours between them, the pilots
could be considered "moderately experienced," Quest said.
Mary Schiavo, CNN aviation analyst and former
inspector-general of the US Department of Transportation, said weather can
change quickly and there may have been little time to act.
This weather system
might have built up very quickly and they're on their own up there. With the
weather up to 52,000 feet, and the operation ceiling is up to about 40,000 on
this plane, so they might not have had many options.
CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam said very heavy
thunderstorms were recorded in the region.
Turbulence could
certainly have been a major factor.
11.59 AirAsia has just altered the nationalities of
those on board. This is their latest statement:
AirAsia Indonesia
would like to issue a correction on the nationality breakdown of passenger and
crew on board QZ8501 as follows:
Nationalities of passengers:
1 Singapore
1 Malaysia
3 South Korea
1 United Kingdom
149 Indonesia
Nationalities of crew:
1 France
6 Indonesia
11.56 David Gleave, a former air accident investigator,
says that the AirAsia Flight QZ8501 most likely developed a mechanical failure,
and that if the plane crashed, it would not be the first time that Indonesia
has been unable to locate plane wreckage.
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